Florida is holding its first El NiƱo Awareness Week this week, with state emergency managers and National Weather Service offices explaining what a very strong El NiƱo could mean for the winter ahead.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management and NWS offices across the state are posting daily topics on social media from Monday, Nov. 9, through Friday, Nov. 13.
What the week covers
Day 1 (Monday): an El NiƱo overview and how it affects global weather patterns and Florida.
Day 2 (Tuesday): severe weather impacts, including a higher risk of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong frontal systems.
Day 3 (Thursday): flooding impacts, with above-normal rainfall, coastal flood concerns and marine impacts.
Day 4 (Friday): winter weather, including temperature impacts, cloudiness and jet stream shifts.
What El NiƱo is
El NiƱo is part of the El NiƱo Southern Oscillation, a periodic swing in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. An El NiƱo occurs when those temperatures stay persistently above average.
The warmer water pushes the subtropical jet stream farther south across the southeastern U.S., NWS Miami says.
What it could mean for Florida
In winter and spring, the pattern promotes cooler and wetter conditions across the Southeast, including Florida. It also creates unfavorable conditions for tropical development.
NWS Tampa Bay says a very strong El NiƱo could bring more frequent cold fronts to west central and southwest Florida, an increased chance of stronger tornadoes, severe wind and hail, and minor to moderate coastal flooding from Gulf low pressure systems.
Not a guarantee
Forecasters stress that El NiƱo shifts average weather patterns and event likelihoods, but it is not a guarantee of impacts.
NWS offices are urging residents to be prepared, not scared. Follow the #FloridaElNiƱoAwarenessWeek hashtag and your local NWS office for the daily topics.
Get the latest at weather.gov/mfl and weather.gov/tbw.
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