Super El Niño next year? Here’s the probability of one

Forecasters at NOAA predict a likely shift to El Niño conditions this winter, with potential impacts on weather patterns.

SEATTLE — Forecasters are eyeing the possibility of a super El Niño next winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center discussion released Thursday says neutral conditions have emerged, and a transition to El Niño conditions later this year is “likely.” There is a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño and a 26% chance of a strong El Niño from November through January.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific

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