In the lead-up to the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, prediction markets saw a frenzy of activity tied to the conflict. Speculators rushed to guess when the first missile strikes would begin and who might be impacted, placing trades worth hundreds of millions of dollars in total. There are already big winners—and some big losers. This weekend, following the death of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Kalshi faced a customer revolt over how it handled a $54 million market about the fate of Iran’s leadership. “People are absolutely livid,” says Kalshi trader Nicholas Mahoney.
The market offered “yes” or “no” contracts on whether Khamanei would be “out” as the
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