Have Pollsters Cleaned Up Their Act in Time for the Midterms?

The other important thing I’ll say is, if the Comey quote is true, then actually he needed to listen to good election forecasts that showed the number was more like 70 percent. So that becomes an argument for further forecasts.

Well, what is a “good” forecast? If we go back to 2016, as you say, Nate Silver’s forecast gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning. Other models pegged Trump’s chances at more like 1 percent or low single digits. The sense is that, because Trump won, Nate Silver was, therefore, “right.” But of course, we can’t really say that. If you say something has a 1-in-100 chance of happening,

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