Have Pollsters Cleaned Up Their Act in Time for the Midterms?

The other important thing I’ll say is, if the Comey quote is true, then actually he needed to listen to good election forecasts that showed the number was more like 70 percent. So that becomes an argument for further forecasts.

Well, what is a “good” forecast? If we go back to 2016, as you say, Nate Silver’s forecast gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning. Other models pegged Trump’s chances at more like 1 percent or low single digits. The sense is that, because Trump won, Nate Silver was, therefore, “right.” But of course, we can’t really say that. If you say something has a 1-in-100 chance of happening,

→ Continue reading at WIRED

Similar Articles

Advertisment

Most Popular

How Twitch lost the battle for its soul

The news that Twitch will be reducing top streamers’ revenue share from 70 / 30 to 50 / 50 signals that the platform is...

Lonzo Ball’s knee injury updates are downright bleak and discouraging

The Chicago Bulls were arguably the NBA’s biggest surprise for the first few months of the 2021-2022 season. That ended when Lonzo Ball went...

COVID-19 cases declining in Washington state ahead of flu season

According to state health officials, COVID cases have continued to decrease since July. They are now lower than the omicron spike early this year....