A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture is set to spread widespread heavy rain and flash flooding across most of New Mexico and into West Texas from Tuesday through Thursday.
Four separate Flood Watches are now in effect, stretching from the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas south to El Paso and east to the Guadalupe Mountains, as forecasters warn of rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour and storm totals as high as 6 inches in some spots.
Central and Northern New Mexico: Albuquerque and Santa Fe at Risk
The NWS Albuquerque office issued the state’s broadest Flood Watch, running from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, and covering the Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque metro area, the Santa Fe metro area, the Espanola Valley, the Estancia Valley, and mountain and highland zones spanning central, east central, north central, northeast and southeast New Mexico.
Forecasters expect rain totals to exceed 2 inches in many areas along and east of the central mountain chain, with training thunderstorms capable of dumping 4 to 6 inches over parts of central and eastern New Mexico. Storms producing rain at rates over 2 inches per hour will raise the risk of rapid runoff, especially below recent burn scars, in urban areas, and in normally dry arroyos.
Southern New Mexico and El Paso: A Slow-Moving Threat
The NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa office continued a Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for a wide stretch of southern New Mexico, including the Silver City area, the Mesilla Valley, Truth or Consequences, the Sacramento Mountains, and Alamogordo, along with El Paso County and the Hueco Mountains area of West Texas.
An early season back door cool front colliding with deep tropical moisture will fuel repeated rounds of thunderstorms with torrential downpours, with the most critical window falling Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Repeated storms training over the same areas could push totals higher than a single pass would suggest.
The Bootheel: Isolated but Serious
A separate Flood Watch from the same office covers the remote Bootheel region of far southwestern New Mexico, including Lordsburg, Animas, Cloverdale and the Upper Gila River Valley, also from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas: Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad
Further east, the NWS Midland/Odessa office posted a Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through early Thursday morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, the Eddy County plains around Carlsbad, Lovington and Hobbs in New Mexico, and Van Horn and the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains in Texas.
A surge of tropical moisture combined with multiple upper-level disturbances is expected to bring heavy rainfall and a continued flash flood threat to the area, with low-water crossings especially vulnerable.
Colorado and West Texas Also Watching the Rain
To the north, NWS Pueblo’s Hazardous Weather Outlook flags daily showers and thunderstorms continuing all week across central, east central, south central and southeast Colorado as monsoon moisture pushes back into the region, with locally heavy rainfall possible along and east of I-25. To the east, NWS Lubbock notes a potential for locally heavy rain Tuesday through Friday across the South Plains and Rolling Plains, especially near the Texas-New Mexico state line, following slow-moving storms Monday that could bring minor flooding on their own.
What Residents Should Do
Never drive through flooded roads. Most flash flood deaths happen in vehicles, and it takes surprisingly little moving water to sweep a car off the road.
Anyone near normally dry arroyos, burn scars, or low-water crossings should stay alert through midweek, since these areas can flood with little warning even when rain is falling miles away. Monitor later forecasts closely and be prepared to act quickly if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area.
More information is available at weather.gov/safety/flood.
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