The entire Southwest is entering a dangerous fire weather window this weekend, with Fire Weather Watches in effect across Arizona, Nevada, Utah and California from Friday morning through Saturday evening — and through Sunday evening for all of northern Arizona.
Multiple wildfires are already burning across the region with evacuations in place, and forecasters are issuing some of the most direct preparedness language seen in recent watches.
A Five-State Threat From Friday Through Sunday
Six NWS offices — Las Vegas, Elko, Reno, Phoenix, Flagstaff and Salt Lake City — have issued coordinated Fire Weather Watches across southern and central Nevada, all of northern Arizona, the Lower Colorado River Valley in Arizona and California, Death Valley, the Mojave Preserve, and most of Utah including the Grand Staircase, Henry Mountains and the San Rafael Swell.
The atmospheric recipe is consistent across the entire zone: southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph, combined with afternoon relative humidity values of 4 to 16 percent — the lowest readings near Yuma, where the NWS Phoenix office is forecasting humidity as low as 4 percent.
The combination of gusty winds and low humidity “can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity before first responders can contain them, especially from any recent lightning holdovers,” the NWS Reno office warned.
Northern Arizona Has the Longest Window
The NWS Flagstaff office issued the most expansive watch: covering all of northern Arizona — the Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon Country, Coconino Plateau, Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and the Navajo and Apache county plateaus — through Sunday evening. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with 8 to 16 percent humidity are expected each afternoon Friday through Sunday, with the Flagstaff office warning that “winds may damage power lines, resulting in new fire starts.”
The Flagstaff bulletin carried unusually direct language: “If you have not packed your go kit yet, now is the time to do so. This includes items like important documents and essentials you cannot live without. Fill your vehicle’s fuel tank.” A Watch means the Warning is coming — conditions will likely upgrade before Friday.
Active Fires Are Already Burning With Evacuations
The watches are arriving on top of an already-active fire situation. According to the National Interagency Coordination Center’s June 23 situation report, multiple fires are burning with extreme to moderate behavior:
The Pocket Fire on Coconino National Forest, 7 miles north of Sedona, has numerous structures threatened with evacuations in effect. The Sycamore Fire on Tonto National Forest, 15 miles north of Globe, is threatening structures and energy infrastructure. In Utah, the Iron Fire near Eureka shows extreme fire behavior with numerous structures threatened and evacuations underway. In Nevada, the Grapevine and Kane Springs fires near Caliente are exhibiting extreme fire behavior. The NIFC notes that fuels across the southern Great Basin are near or exceeding record dry levels, running 4 to 6 weeks ahead of normal.
What to Do Before Friday
Treat this Watch as a Warning that hasn’t been issued yet. Pack a go-bag with documents, medications, phone chargers and essential items. Know your evacuation route. Fill your gas tank. Move flammable materials away from your home. Follow local fire restrictions — in Arizona, check wildlandfire.az.gov/fire-restrictions.
Monitor weather.gov/fgz for northern Arizona, weather.gov/vef for southern Nevada and Lake Mead, weather.gov/slc for Utah, and weather.gov/psr for the Lower Colorado River Valley. Watches are expected to upgrade to Red Flag Warnings as Friday approaches.
